A Model for Assessment and Prognosis of River Water Quality

I. K. Diadovski, T. Hristova and M. Petrov

Abstract
A model for analysis, evaluation and prognosis of river quality was developed, which is a modification of the time series analysis. The model was developed on the basis of information from the National Ecological Monitoring Network. The model was applied for an assessment and prognosis of water pollution of the Iskar River in the Iskar Dam catchment. Waters of the Iskar River are used for drinking water supply of the city of Sofia. Periodical seasonal and annual pollution variations were determined, as well as basic tendencies in the evolution of the water quality for the period from 1986 to 1990. A prognosis of the river pollution for the period from 1991 to 1993 was made. The statistical assessment of the models for different pollution parameters shows that they reflect adequately the pollution dynamics of the Iskar River for the investigated period.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Keywords
modelling, pollution, polynomials, prognosis, retrospective analysis